The forecasting skill that separates genuine edge from expensive noise
After 15 years trading at an institutional level, I can say this with certainty:
Most traders and economists have market views. Turning those views into money is a completely different discipline.
Forecasting well isn't about being bold. It's about asking the right questions, assigning the right probabilities, and knowing when you're wrong before the market tells you.
Get it right, and the way you think about every trade changes.
Get it wrong… and you're just another confident voice in a very expensive room.
That's why I'm hosting this FREE live Masterclass.
Inside this 60-Minute Masterclass, you’ll learn:
➦ A step-by-step process to estimate the future with better accuracy — by asking better questions Borrowed from Enrico Fermi, who once asked: "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" The answer will change how you think about forecasting forever.
➦ A simple format to assign a probability and an end date to any forecast - No more vague market views, a real framework you can use immediately.
➦ Why governments and intelligence agencies produce the best forecasts in the world and how to think like they do - with a few straightforward steps, I'll show you how to approach a forecast the way the CIA does.
➦ Reading resources that will make you a sharper, more structured thinker - including a shameless plug for Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting, one of the best books ever written on prediction. Buy it. Seriously.
➦ My top five live predictions and how I'm trading them - not theory, real positions and reasoning. I'll walk you through exactly how I build a picture of outcomes.
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Tuesday, 19th May
2pm, London time
Join me LIVE as I show you everything you need to know.
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Why Learn This From Adamis Principle?
I’m a late-career changer.
At 38 years old, I left the creative, comfortable world of the BBC to step into Futures trading, right in the middle of the Greek Crisis.
Not only did I survive that environment… I flourished.
I've since spoken to all the major asset managers across the GCC. I predicted that the 10-year yield had a 78% chance of cracking 450bps by Q2. The high was 432bps.
That kind of accuracy isn't luck. It's a method. And this Masterclass is where I hand that method over to you.
Who is this for?
➦ Traders who have a market view but struggle to turn it into a structured, tradeable forecast
➦ Late-career changers who want to walk into a new role and immediately impress, whether that's at an asset manager, a bank, or a prop desk
➦ Anyone on a mission to move into professional trading later in life
This isn't about being flashy. It's about being credible, structured, and right more often than the people around you.
You will impress institutional traders and anyone with half an ounce of intellectual curiosity.
"As it is really difficult to get an education about the commercial perspective of FX trading, Patrick fills the gap excellently. As a professional trader with a great sense of global macro and technical expertise, he teaches you how to cut out the noise and focus on market movers while combining these two aspects of trading."
"Patrick has a huge wealth of knowledge with the forex market. He gave me great insight on how to gauge the market sentiment and how to come up with a process on how to analyse it."
Want a seat?
About your host Patrick...
Patrick Reid is a currency expert with over 15 years experience in trading FX and propriety desks. He has accepted a role as Visiting Lecturer at The University of Cambridge and is Co-Founder of The Adamis Principle which mentors traders at all levels.
During his career he has mentored clients from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Credit Suisse. His passion is nurturing and finding talent within young people has led him to partner with The Youth Group and Jack Parsons, The UK’s chief youth officer. Jack recently interviewed Rishi Sunak, The UK's former Prime Minister. Adamis Principle’s outreach to less fortunate young people is a top priority for him.
Patrick has regular meetings with FX traders at The Bank of England for research and academic discussions only.
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